Plaid Cymru win Caerphilly Welsh Government by-election holding off Reform UK

Plaid Cymru has defeated Reform UK in a fiercely-fought Welsh Parliament by-election, with defending party Labour trailing in third.

Nigel Farage’s party was hoping to win its first seat at the ballot box in the Caerphilly constituency and pledged to “throw everything” at its campaign.

But Plaid has emerged victorious with a majority of 3,848 votes, and a swing of almost 27% from Labour, on a high turnout of more than 50%.

The result will embolden Plaid in its efforts to enter government in Wales next year, and is a bitter blow for Labour, which had held the seat since the Senedd was first established in 1999.

Lindsay Whittle received 15,961 votes, more than 47% of the total, which is up almost 19% from the 2021 result in the constituency with a swing from Labour of almost 27%.

Reform candidate Llyr Powell got 12,113 votes – the party had only 495 four years ago – with Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe trailing on 3,713, down from 13,289 in 2021, when there was a lower turnout.

Conservative candidate Gareth Potter received just 690 votes, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats getting 516 and 497 respectively.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said: “Tonight, the people of Caerphilly have spoken loud and clear.

“They’ve chosen hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Wales vision.

“Lindsay Whittle is a tireless local champion who knows every community in this constituency inside out and will deliver real change for the people of Caerphilly.”

He continued: “This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative.

“We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone.

“The message from Caerphilly is clear: Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way.”

Mr Whittle said: “I’ve spent my whole life fighting for this community, and I won’t stop now.

“Tonight’s result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.

“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”

In his victory speech, he paid tribute to Hefin Wyn David, who had served as Member of the Senedd for Caerphilly since 2016, and died in August.

“I hope that this will be now an exciting time for politics in Wales,” Mr Whittle added.

“I’ve been absolutely heartened by the number of young people who’ve been involved in this campaign.

“Listen Westminster, this is Caerphilly, and Wales, telling you we want a better deal.

“We are at the dawn of new leadership, we are at the dawn of a new beginning and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular for the people of the Caerphilly constituency.

“I thank you with all of my heart.”

Mr Powell said Reform was the one party surging in Caerphilly and he thought it would form a government in Wales in 2026.

He said: “I think, next May, we’re going to form a Reform government, so I’m looking forward to that.

“I think what we’re seeing, we’ve got more people turning out to vote now when they’ve got a party they believe in, and that’s what Reform is offering.

“What my goal in the next coming weeks is going to be is to register more people to vote, to encourage more people to use their democratic right, and we will see different results.

“So I’m very excited for what we’re building here in Wales.

“Moving forward, you can see Labour in decline, and there’s one party that’s surging here, and you can see from tonight’s result that’s Reform UK.”

Labour has led the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999.

But in recent polling, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were forecast to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year.

The victory for Plaid Cymru comes in the run-up to a vote on the Welsh Government budget, which has been a source of anxiety for the Labour administration.

When passing its last budget in March, the Government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through by a tight margin.

While Labour is the largest party, it does not have a majority, and the next budget vote will be even more difficult after losing the Caerphilly seat.

First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “This was a by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally.”

She added: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.

“We take our share of the responsibility for this result.

“We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”

Published: 24/10/2025 by Radio NewsHub